Monday, November 30, 2009

An Electric Future? Not yet.

According to the December issue of "Automobile Magazine," the Frankfurt Motor Show, held in Frankfurt, Germany declared that electricity has won the three way battle for the future of the automobile. Hydrogen and hybrids have lost.

I'm not so sure.

Automobile points to the concepts shown at Frankfurt. Most of them were electrics from Audi, Mercedes-Benz, Peugeot, Renault and Mitsubishi. Taken together, these companies represent the entire spectrum of cars from compacts to luxury.

Audi, in particular, completely embraced electricity with its e-tron concept.

Its got 308hp coming through the four electric motors that drive each wheel. In theory, it'll do 0-60 in 4.8 seconds.

That's the beauty of the electric motor, it lays down all of it's torque (the spinning force of an engine) instantly. There's no buildup, or revving, like in an internal combustion engine. So power isn't a problem when it comes to electric cars.

No, the greatest hurdle is the charging. That's what will hobble these cars.

Some people think that charging up large amounts of electrical vehicles will overload, and wipe out, the US power grid. Some studies have proven this to be false. But that debate is a moot point. The real problem, the real weak spot, is that the vehicles have to be charged in the first place.

For example, the e-tron. It would take 8 hours to charge it with a 220 volt outlet. With a 440 volt outlet the time gets cut to around 2 1/2 hours. Either way it's all too damn long.

The original purpose of the automobile was to create a form of freedom. Drivers could go anywhere after cranking an engine and hitting the throttle. All a car asks for is maintenance and gasoline.

There's no waiting. No eight hour charges and no plug ins.

That is why the electric car won't be the dominant form of transportation. At least not with the technology we have now. People won't buy a vehicle that requires them to map out their days, commutes and trips around charging times. It's inconvenient.

If the last ten years of technology have taught us anything it's that we won't tolerate anything inconvenient.

Electric cars will be popular in large cities or other places where destinations are fairly close, and charging times aren't as influential. Also, someone will surely create a quick charge system that will significantly lower charging times. However, that will probably reduce the life of the batteries, which are the most expensive parts of an electric car.

That is why hydrogen should get more attention. It's almost a renewable resource and, when used, produces only water. There's no charging. It's like gasoline and involves a filling station, which is much more familiar to consumers.

Hydrogens's critics point out that there is no national distribution system. But they've forgotten something. Gas stations didn't magically appear all over the US when the Ford Model T came out. It took time.

That is why the future of the automobile will be a bastardized one: change takes time. Gasoline, diesel, electric, hybrid and maybe even hydrogen cars will roam our streets all at the same time.

Someone saying that one power source has won is very shortsighted, and foolish.

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